Every summer the same thing happens: camp opens, the takes start flying, and 90% of it means nothing by Week 3. A backup gets praised in shorts and suddenly he's a breakout. Ignore it.
What actually matters for bettors is narrow: starting quarterback situations, offensive line continuity, and who's getting the goal-line work. Those three move win totals and player props more than anything else you'll read in August.
What I'm watching
Offensive line is the one people underrate. Continuity is measurable and it shows up in pressure rate, which shows up in passing props. A line returning four of five starters is a very different bet than one breaking in a new center.
What I'm ignoring
Anything about "great shape," anything from a padded practice highlight, and anything a coach says in a press conference in July. Coaches lie in the summer. It's practically part of the job.
Numbers over narratives. That's the whole thing.
This is a sample post — replace with your own take.